I am a huge believer that the Storm will cruise through their first-round matchup with the Mystics (again: see below), which would almost certainly match them up with the Aces in the second round.Īs Matt pointed out, this series could well pivot on 3-pointers. However, as will be touched on later, I don’t see their road to be as challenging as these odds imply. The Storm finished the season as the fourth seed and as such, have a challenging road to a title. That’s due in large part to my best title bet here: The Seattle Storm. I agree with Matt that the Aces match up very well with the Sky, but I fear they may not make it to that hypothetical championship game. They also heavily rely on the three, which they excel at, but in the postseason, when easy looks dry up a bit, and even the best teams can go through extended cold streaks, that sort of variance from a favorite scares me. This is a team that gets about 80% of their points from their starting five, and now with Kiah Stokes moved from the bench to the starting lineup, they have a grand total of one player averaging more than four points a game off the bench. I have my doubts about their depth, and those doubts are raised even higher with the absence of Dearica Hamby to start the postseason. Unlike my colleague Matt, I’m not as big a believer in the Aces.
Jim Turvey: Seattle +600 (FanDuel would play at +500 too)īefore getting to the Storm, a quick sidenote: If I had to pick a team straight up to win the 2022 WNBA title, it would be the Chicago Sky. Then, the Storm would be dogs again to the defending champion Sky, but the gap is close enough in my matchup numbers (Sky -3.5 in the road games at Seattle) to give 5-1 some value.īeyond the numbers and matchups, though, if there is one player I want to hitch my money to? It’s Breanna Stewart. Not only that, but the Storm are third in 3-point rate per 100 possessions to keep pace with the Aces (who also allow the most 3-point makes per 100 possessions) and rank second in 3-point makes allowed per possession. If the Storm look like a better half-court offensive team than they did in the regular season (seventh overall via Synergy Sports) by just relying more on Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd, and Tina Charles, they can make a run. And with the Storm’s championship experience and grit, they may be able to outperform that profile in the postseason. However, this is all based on their regular-season profile. If the Storm beat the Mystics, which they may not, that’s going to be a brutal series, I have them as considerable dogs to the Aces, predictably. Longshot bet (0.25u): Storm +500 or better The time has finally come for Vegas, overhyped for so long, to finally earn their flowers and raise the banner. The Aces’ problems the last few years were Bill Laimbeer’s archaic, anti-three coaching and Liz Cambage. the Sky than even their power rating projects. The Aces take about six more 3-point attempts per 100 possessions than Chicago, and based on halfcourt and transition matchup data, I have the Aces favored by considerably more (Aces -5.2 at home) vs. But Chicago will play a Liberty team with higher variance built in by its 3-point rate, and then a tough Sun team.īut ultimately, I’d still probably feel that the Sky (+250 or better) were the best bet if it weren’t for the fact that I think the Aces match up so well. The Aces have a harder path than Chicago, given that Vegas has to play the winner of the Mystics-Storm gauntlet of doom. Then the Sky started to lose a little steam, and the Aces picked back up, finishing strong, including the final game vs. In that time, the Sky thrived (and I bet Chicago at +250 or better repeatedly, logged in the Action app). Vegas was the prohibitive favorite for much of the season, then hit a midseason swoon and absolutely nosedived for a month. When considering the context of the season, that’s really important.
On power rating, I have the Aces favored over the Sky. But with fewer teams in the W, the disparity between the great and the good is steeper. So this is boring, the best team with the best record, the No.
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